Signals, Constellations, and Questions About Future Classrooms
A trend is a well-established direction. A signal is a possibility. Both matter as we pursue L+D’s big question for the year: “What’s The Future?”
A trend is a line with a velocity that may or may not continue heading the same direction. A signal may feel more like a blinking light in the sky. Is that a satellite, or a helicopter? Is it landing – or just warming up for a long flight?
Trends have a good chance of becoming a dominant reality. Signals might…or might not.
Trends evoke certainty. Signals raise questions.
Trends are often discussed. But signals, as perceived outliers, are often dismissed.
In this article, we’ll discuss both. It’s an exercise in futurist thinking – an attempt to be more curious (and less certain) about the future. After all, futurists don’t predict the future. They imagine possible futures.
I know, I know. We all want certainty, but that’s not how life works. As the futurist Bob Johansen says, “The future will reward clarity, but punish certainty.”
How can we have one without the other?
Below, we’re looking at both. Some of the signals may seem like outliers. That’s the point. Rather than looking away from them, or marginalizing them, we need to ask: “what can they teach us?”
In this short piece, I’ll cite some signals that may indicate possible futures for learning – what they look like, who is in them, what happens in them. Some of them are explicitly about classrooms. Others are less direct. Be sure to click on the links to learn more.
I’ve organized those signals into constellations that appear to tell a story. You may see the constellation differently, and in fact, so may I given some more time. (Stars are empirically real, but constellations are interpretations of patterns that shift from time to time and culture to culture.)
After each, I will outline one possible future it could indicate. None of these futures are intended intended to be a prediction. They are intended to be provocations, rooted in some signals that are out there, telling us something that will only appear obvious in retrospect.
Finally, I’ll frame some questions that arise for me as a result.
Constellation A: Self Organized Learning Communities
Signals (links below):
Parents Look To Have More Influence Over Curriculums
One Possible Future:
Families were seeking more control over their child’s education well before COVID-19, and they scrambled to find new options in 2020. Emerging from the pandemic, families never rebuilt trust with established schools. These schools, dubbed “paleoschools” by advocates of self-organized learning communities, who find the cost-benefit of tuition driven schools lacking, that public schools lack accountability in terms of financing and curriculum, and that both lack the agility needed to respond to the disruptions that become a more regular feature of the world. Some self-organized learning communities are little more than homeschools, but others employ several faculty whose salaries are split among several families who can dictate the curriculum without any bureaucratic intermediaries. Some of these schools operate at unusual hours. Others are radically neighborhood based. Still others have clear political orientations – whether progressive or conservative.
Questions for Teaching and Learning:
What level of parental control – if any – should be offered over curriculum or reading lists?
How might we encourage students who want to work remotely to return to school instead of on-line programs? What are the mental health and socialization needs schools will need to address?
How will we be resilient in the face of future pandemics, extreme weather, and other potential disruptions to ongoing operation?
What kind of choices will we offer parents to opt-in or opt-out of our programs? How can we partner with them effectively?
Constellation B: A New Social Contract for a Teaching Workforce
Signals (links below):
One Possible Future:
Teaching has historically been a field of underpaid professionals forming cultures where they go above and beyond for kids. In this future, unionization is no longer primarily for public schools (and a handful of independent schools), nor is it dominated by large, established unions. Rather, faculties are marked by a spectrum of unions and advocacy organizations pushing for new lines to make teaching physically and emotionally sustainable. A small handful of schools have avoided unionization – or responded to teacher advocacy constructively, by shifting work schedules and expectations to make teaching a competitive option when compared to a private sector with rapid wage growth and work-from-home flexibility. Others are holding on to old models, but lack a stable workforce as a result. Meanwhile, many parents feel they are getting less, paying more, or both. Others are happy to support teacher demands, and the conversation has polarized some communities.
Questions for Future Classrooms:
What is our value proposition 10 years from now? How will we justify the tradeoffs families make to join our community?
Why will teachers “want” to teach in-person in our schools? How can we make in-person teaching, independent school workload and the desire for more employee work-life balance attractive to those who are considering working from home?
How will we be resilient in the face of future pandemics, climate disruption, and other world events that will impact our schools? How will we ensure the infrastructures to keep school running as well as support administrators and teachers who will need resilience and flexibility to “stay the course”?
What kind of choices will we offer parents to opt-in or opt-out of our programs? How can we partner with them effectively?
Constellation C: Increased Constituent Voice and Declining Institutional Trust
Signals (links below):
One Possible Future:
Teachers have come to understand that whatever they teach, say, or do can be seen by virtually anyone in the world. With the ability to record and distribute video and audio radically democratized, the power for everyday people to hold authority figures accountable has radically increased. So, too, has the rise of outside actors with defined agendas. Not everyone agrees about who belongs in which category.
Questions for Future Classrooms:
How can we (re-)build trust with community members who have been let down by the institution?
Which teacher mistakes are forgivable? Which are not?
What kind of transparency do we need to offer our communities?
How should we respond to community questions or feedback on teacher content, behavior, comments, classroom management?
How do we work with parents on their appropriate role or address groups that are provocative – sometimes in helpful ways and sometimes in obstructionist ways?
I am not saying the constellations above are the only three patterns to see – they’re obviously not!
I’m not saying they’re the most important, either.
What I am saying is that we need to broaden the set of signals we pay attention to in our schools so that we can ask better questions. Those questions have helped me gain more clarity – in part because, to use Bob Joahnsen’s formulation, they keep me from pretending to find certainty.
For each constellation – and for others you may identify on your team – here are some more questions you might consider.
What are the challenges created by this scenario?
What are the opportunities created by this scenario?
How would our mission, vision, and/or values call us to respond?
What skills will students need in such a world? Are we teaching those skills?
What is our preferred future? How can we make that future more likely, beginning now?
Hopefully these will help you (and your team) gain clarity, too.
