Scenario #5: A Future Business Model
Scenario written by Joe Romano
As we have shared all year, writing and responding to scenarios is one of the best ways you can build cognitive flexibility and prepare yourself and your institution to respond to novel circumstances. Even if the details in a scenario do not come to pass, or even feel like they could be relevant to your school, simply by walking through the situation - preferably with a thought partner or group - you can develop the skill of second order thinking. By asking "And then what?" we can trace the impact of our decisions beyond the immediate consequence and consider the cascading effects of our choices. This kind of thinking is a skill for any leader who has to make decisions, not just futurists considering imaginary scenarios and forecasting specific outcomes. In addition, the ability to vividly imagine oneself in the future, episodic future thinking, has been linked to all sorts of benefits, including better decision making, emotional regulation, and general optimism.
The following scenario was created by our frequent collaborator and Director of Innovation at Charles Wright Academy, Joe Romano, for the NWAIS Business Officers meeting where he and Greg Bamford facilitated a futurist thinking session. Besides being a compelling scenario about a competitor school that manages to lower tuition with the help of an AI admissions solution, this scenario is a gem to bring to a board, an enrollment management team, or a senior leadership team. One of the things that makes this scenario relevant for any school leader to read, not just business officers, is that like most scenarios, it has an unspoken context. If this scenario is true, what else is likely happening in the field of eduction or at the school, with human resources, with resource allocation, with AI? How are all aspects of a school impacted by the context that would make this scenario possible.
We'd love to know if you bring this scenario to a team or if you have found this kind of thinking to level you up as a leader!
A New Vantage
November 10, 2033. This fall, spirits were high in the business office at Ponderosa Prep. Last year’s heavy lift to iterate the school’s predictive analysis of enrollment and budgeting has been a resounding success: most departments report perfect alignment between needs and funds, and Admissions is calibrating their efforts to the data. Never mind reimbursements and requests: faculty are finally using the new blockchain-enhanced GL Coding, which will lead to the most seamless budgeting and audit processes in Ponderosa’s long history.
All signs pointed towards a lovely fiscal year. That is until Vantage Academy made headlines once again. Vantage, your crosstown rival, released two major announcements. For the ‘33-34 school year, Vantage will reduce tuition by 10% and offer each student 4 hours a week of individual support, whether personal training, mindset coaching, tutoring, or arts mentorship. This in addition to the strong academic, athletic, and artistic programs Vantage has been known to offer.
You’ve seen it for years. Vantage builds a pool. Ponderosa builds a pool. Ponderosa offers study abroad in Berlin. Vantage goes to Monaco. Each year, you just wait for your head to schedule the meeting, “At Vantage…”
Their most recent announcements have caused significant consternation for the team at Ponderosa. Re-enrollment approaches, and once again Vantage is offering a compelling alternative to Ponderosa’s liberal arts education. How can they possibly increase the program and cut revenue?
EduAssist. You learned about it from a well-connected board member. After years of inconsistent results, several micro-schools in your region have showcased how EduAssist-6 lends them superpowers. This AI solution can handle student admissions, financial management, personalized learning plans, and even the provision of individualized feedback for teachers, students, and parents. These micro-schools report that EduAssist helps them achieve the gross productivity of organizations ten times larger than theirs.
A combination of severance packages and early retirement plans helped Vantage trim from administrative and instructional support salaries, allowing them to re-route resources to mentoring, coaching, and other student-facing roles. Salaries and benefits now account for under 60% of their operating budget.
Worried about the impact this will have on Ponderosa’s admissions strategy, the Board of Trustees has tasked you to analyze the impact of adopting EduAssist at Ponderosa Prep. The Senior Leadership Team is divided on the issue: some feel adopting EduAssist would keep Ponderosa competitive with Vantage, while others are not certain you can pass this through the employee union established after that 2027 walkout. You have had several weeks to prepare talking points for the Fall Retreat.
Questions for reflection:
How do you personally feel about this disruption?
What do you imagine as the work of the business office in 2033? What kinds of conversations are you having? Are there policies that you are putting in place?
What are the biggest challenges in managing this situation at your school? For the Business office? The Head of School? The Board of Trustees?
How does this scenario impact all of the constituencies in the school (students, parents, faculty, and staff)?
What are the pros and cons of this new reality?
How might you use your school’s core values and mission to make a decision about how to address this situation?
What steps might you take in 2023 to drive towards a more preferred future?
If you are interested in bringing futurist thinking to your board or community, contact us at info@leadershipandesign.org.
