Scenario #2: The College Lottery

If you have been following our newsletter this fall, you know that L+D is offering future scenarios throughout the year and encouraging you, our readers, to use them with your boards, senior leadership teams, students, and faculty and staff to spark conversation, encourage collaborative problem solving, and build cognitive flexibility. A scenario is not an attempt to predict the future, but rather to offer a possible future. In addition, the scenarios are not meant to convey a point of view, a hope for the future, or a dystopian lens. These scenarios are written with a neutral perspective - or as neutral as possible. Finally, when we write scenarios, we are basing them on signals that we are seeing in the world around us. While signals provide an indication that something is occurring that could disrupt the status quo, the actual disruption itself is unclear. We are sharing only one possible outcome. In fact, if you explore the scenario below, you might consider creating a different outcome using the same signals. What else could happen?

We always share discussion questions for your teams. If you are a member of L+Doers Unite, you have access to the full scenario guide which will help you delve deeper into the topic and also offer additional activities. Please check our slack channel for the guide if you are a member.  Or join today!

THE COLLEGE LOTTERY

SIGNALS:

The following signals have inspired this month's scenario.

1. Since the onset of COVID-19, many colleges and universities have moved to test-optional admissions policies and are no longer requiring the SAT or ACT for college admissions. In fact, the University of California system does not allow applicants to submit these test scores at all. This represents a huge shift for college admissions practices - especially for large public institutions but also for smaller schools that may not be as selective. This policy shift has changed the application process for students and increased applications at highly selective colleges by as much as 30%.

2. Lowell High School in San Francisco has always been seen as the “jewel” of the SFUSD system. For decades, it has had a highly selective admissions process based on test scores and GPA, much like schools in New York City including Bronx School of Science and Stuyvesant High School. These schools have been under immense pressure to make their admissions processes more inclusive in order to diversify the student population and make the schools more accessible to Black and Latino/a students. In 2020, Lowell high school changed its admissions policy and became a lottery system, fueled, in part, by a set of racial incidents at the school. This year after much controversy including the ousting of school board members, Lowell has returned to a merit based process while a task force reviews admissions protocol. It is unclear where their admissions process will ultimately land.

3. Later this month, on October 31, the US Supreme Court will be hearing two landmark cases concerning race-based affirmative action concerning race-based affirmative action - one against Harvard University and one against the University of North Carolina. The cases could end the long standing race conscious policies that Universities have used to help ensure racial diversity on their campuses. We wonder how these schools will proceed if the Supremes rule in favor of the SFFA, the plaintiff in both cases. Both cases will be heard separately on the same day.

THE SCENARIO:

The names of colleges and universities in this scenario were selected at random. There is no indication that any of these colleges and universities will be changing their admissions practices at this time (with the exception of the UC schools).  

October 12, 2032 The college application season is upon us but this year we are seeing yet another set of colleges and universities move towards lottery based admissions practices. It’s been a gradual evolution, but we have reached a tipping point. What began with the University of California and CalState systems moving from test optional to test prohibitive, the California systems were the first to pilot a system that used GPA, class rank and letters of recommendation to determine eligibility to enter the admissions process. Once students passed a certain threshold, their names were put into a lottery for admissions to these schools.

Since then we saw this practice adopted quickly by other state university systems including the University of Michigan and Michigan State, the University of North Carolina, and University of Arizona and Arizona State to name a few. In the subsequent five years almost all state systems moved to this new admissions system with less selective private colleges following suit. Only the public colleges and universities in VA, Texas, and Florida maintained their requirements as did the most selective colleges and universities in the country - those schools that have routinely shown up on the US News and World Report.

This year we see a handful of those selective colleges and universities begin to fall. Amherst College, Wesleyan University, Brown University and Vanderbilt University have all announced that this year will be the final year of a traditional admissions process although they still plan to use the SAT and ACT as criteria for admission. We expect to hear from more universities this fall as the admissions season progresses.

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS:

1. As you read this scenario, rate how you feel on a scale of 1-4. 1=highly pessimistic and worried about the scenario. 4=highly optimistic about the scenario.

2. It’s ten years in the future. What’s going on with you? Take a few minutes to envision “future you”. What is your role? In that role, what kinds of decisions will you be responsible for at your school?

3. What are going to be the challenges of managing this shift at your school?

4. Are there any opportunities that you can imagine coming from this shift?

5. What might your students, staff and families need from your school? You personally in your role? What do you imagine students and parents saying in response to this shift?

6. What does leadership look like at this moment?

7. Why might colleges and universities switched to this process? What benefits will the see? What downsides?

8. What will you need to do - what actions, policies, routines, structures - will you need to put into place?

9. What partnerships or other levers might you put into place?

10. How might this shift alter your school’s value proposition? Your own admissions process if you have one? Your College Counseling department?

11. Having thought about this scenario a bit more extensively, rate how you feel on a scale of 1-4. 1=highly pessimistic about the scenario. 4=optimistic about the scenario.

12. How prepared do you think your school currently is to manage this scenario?

13. What (other) signals do you see now that suggest this could happen? How likely do you believe this scenario is to come to pass? (1=not likely, 4=very likely)

14. Knowing this is a possible future scenario, what actions might you consider taking as a school to prepare?

15. What other scenarios might the actions above help your school prepare for? In other words, which of those actions would help your school best prepare for a broad range of possible futures?

Please let us know how you use these scenarios with your school. We would love to feature you and your school an upcoming issue.  Contact Carla Silver with details.